Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 17.087307 20.688978 24.666334 29.357990 34.713559 40.609143 47.561777
2025-10-05 12.201539 16.982719 22.815914 30.337320 39.652081 50.680851 64.587998
2025-10-12 9.385010 14.624196 21.537470 31.067240 43.581117 59.163360 79.712836
2025-10-19 7.462765 12.864606 20.496750 31.624015 46.947191 66.801520 93.904491
2025-10-26 6.157929 11.641591 19.876903 32.479325 50.541429 74.721363 108.659976
2025-11-02 4.871689 10.140988 18.562564 32.082301 52.220424 80.024277 120.071127
2025-11-09 3.990033 9.097834 17.744786 32.236237 54.563713 86.219960 132.825984
2025-11-16 3.231493 8.090824 16.806275 32.038802 56.278331 91.513871 144.454650
2025-11-23 2.531627 7.017518 15.571980 31.185338 56.854909 95.106296 153.736289
2025-11-30 2.196558 6.610549 15.445477 32.117754 60.212132 102.857120 169.188734
2025-12-07 1.760358 5.860641 14.558537 31.626166 61.213815 107.077156 179.602736
2025-12-14 1.486083 5.416929 14.190779 31.992281 63.596016 113.443942 193.347374
2025-12-21 1.069417 4.487890 12.727148 30.283772 62.539337 114.686112 199.881808
2025-12-28 0.921335 4.260131 12.730567 31.363459 66.351833 123.800459 218.777111
2026-01-04 0.777022 3.987838 12.583094 32.117560 69.616364 132.148179 236.750712
2026-01-11 0.647302 3.707742 12.363667 32.689189 72.563939 140.070786 254.288469
2026-01-18 0.551813 3.507343 12.300904 33.566704 76.099954 149.072264 273.772060
2026-01-25 0.425640 3.115911 11.671497 33.159401 77.200260 154.028774 286.952661
2026-02-01 0.341507 2.851030 11.323068 33.317326 79.355127 160.816070 303.237552
2026-02-08 0.264326 2.561963 10.842749 33.114775 80.778793 166.374974 317.656250
2026-02-15 0.190033 2.217248 10.113558 32.239106 80.799117 169.469626 328.092677
2026-02-22 0.161864 2.126223 10.151083 33.195774 84.532958 179.194183 349.731486
2026-03-01 0.118142 1.878526 9.619733 32.691420 85.246259 183.563874 362.535665